The forecast, released by the Canadian Institute for Health Information (CIHI), predicts that the number of deaths from COVID-19 in Canada will reach 8,890 by December 31. That’s up from the current total of 6,945 deaths.
The CIHI report also projects that the number of new cases of COVID-19 in Canada will continue to rise over the next few months, with a peak in mid-November. The report estimates that there will be more than 400,000 new cases by the end of 2020.
The CIHI report is based on data from provincial and territorial health authorities and takes into account factors such as population size and age distribution. It also considers recent trends in case numbers and hospitalizations.
The CIHI report comes as Canada continues to grapple with a second wave of COVID-19 infections. The country has seen an increase in cases since September, with some provinces imposing stricter measures to contain the spread of the virus.
The institute’s projections are based on a variety of factors, including the current rate of infection, the availability of medical resources and the effectiveness of public health measures. The IHME also takes into account population size and age distribution when making its predictions.
The institute’s estimates are not definitive, but they provide an indication of what could happen if current trends continue. It is important to note that these projections can change as new information becomes available or if public health measures are implemented more effectively.
It is clear that Canada must take action to reduce the spread of COVID-19 in order to prevent further deaths from occurring. This includes implementing social distancing measures, wearing masks in public, and following other public health guidelines such as frequent handwashing and avoiding large gatherings. Additionally, it is important for Canadians to get vaccinated when the vaccine becomes available in order to protect themselves and their communities from this deadly virus.
Dr. Ali Mokdad has stated that viruses like COVID-19 tend to spread more easily in colder weather, as people spend more time indoors and are in closer contact with each other. He also notes that the virus is able to survive longer on surfaces in cold temperatures, making it easier for it to spread from person to person.
- “This is a new virus, we’re still learning a lot about it. But if you look at even the Spanish flu, the second wave came in winter, it was way, way higher. We know from the flu, we know from pneumonia … we know all these viruses love winter, love us to come inside.â€Â he said.
The virus was particularly deadly for young adults, with mortality rates as high as 20% in some age groups.
He says that the two countries are still in the first wave because case numbers have not gone down for a sustained period of time. He also notes that the virus is still spreading rapidly in both countries, and that there are still many people who are unaware they have been infected.
- “A second wave means you went down to zero and then you start all over, so New Zealand had a second wave. We in the U.S. and Canada, we’re still in this first wave that [is] dragging,â€Â he said.
“We need to make sure that we are wearing masks, that we are washing our hands and that we are keeping physical distance,” Mokdad said. “That is the only way to get out of this pandemic.”
She notes that the IHME’s projections are based on a variety of factors, including current trends in infection rates, the availability of treatments and vaccines, and the effectiveness of public health measures. Dr. Tuite adds that while it is difficult to predict the future with any certainty, the IHME’s projections provide an important starting point for understanding how the pandemic may evolve over time.
- “In terms of the Canadian projections, they’re interesting because if you dig down and you look province by province, they’re basically entirely driven by Ontario and Quebec, so the assumption is that the rest of the provinces will have very, very few deaths moving into the winter.â€
she says. “And I would say I have less confidence in those projections because we are starting to see increases in cases in B.C. and in Alberta in particular,†she added.
They are not predictions and should not be taken as such. The projections are based on current trends and data, but they do not take into account any potential changes or events that could occur in the future.
- “We will see what’s happening and we will hopefully prevent this from happening,” she says.
used by the government to predict the spread of COVID-19. They argue that the models do not take into account certain factors, such as population density, travel patterns, and other environmental factors. They also point out that the models are based on assumptions about how people will behave in response to the virus, which may not be accurate. Additionally, some experts believe that the models underestimate the potential for transmission of the virus due to asymptomatic carriers or those who have mild symptoms but still transmit it. Finally, they argue that the models do not account for changes in behavior over time as people become more aware of the risks associated with COVID-19.
Critics have argued that the models are too optimistic, and don’t take into account the potential for a second wave of infections. They also point out that the models don’t account for regional differences in infection rates, or the potential for new variants of the virus to emerge. Additionally, some experts have argued that the models don’t adequately consider how social distancing measures may be relaxed over time, which could lead to an increase in cases.
He believes that the number is too low and that the actual death toll could be much higher. He said, “I think it’s going to be closer to 500,000 deaths by the end of the year.”
- “I think that’s completely unrealistic. I see no basis for that,â€Â says Jha.
This is an assumption that the IHME team has made in order to make their projections. They assume that the mortality rate of those infected with coronavirus will remain constant over time, and that any changes in mortality rates will be due to changes in healthcare capacity or other factors. This assumption allows them to make more accurate predictions about the future course of the pandemic.
“We have better treatments, better medications, and more advanced technology. We can diagnose and treat diseases much more quickly and accurately than ever before.” He adds that the medical system is also becoming more efficient, with fewer delays in care and improved access to care for all patients.
Epidemiologists who believe any projection beyond just a few weeks into the future is useless are likely basing their opinion on the fact that many factors can change in a short period of time, making it difficult to accurately predict what will happen. For example, new information about the virus or changes in public health measures could drastically alter the course of an outbreak. Additionally, human behavior is unpredictable and can have a major impact on how quickly an outbreak spreads. Therefore, epidemiologists may feel that attempting to make predictions beyond a few weeks is not worth the effort since they may be inaccurate.
He went on to say that “it is important to remember that models are not predictions, but rather estimates of what could happen.â€
Reich’s comments emphasize the importance of understanding the limitations of models when making decisions. Models can provide useful information about potential outcomes, but they cannot predict the future with certainty. It is important to consider other factors such as public health measures and individual behavior when making decisions based on model results.
“We can use these projections to plan for the future and make sure we have the resources and infrastructure in place to respond to whatever happens,” he said. “It’s important to remember that these are just projections, and they may not be accurate. But they can help us prepare for a range of possible scenarios.”
The first scenario is a “best-case” scenario, which assumes that Canadians continue to follow public health measures and that the virus does not mutate. This scenario suggests that the number of cases will remain relatively low through the fall. The second scenario is a “worst-case” scenario, which assumes that Canadians do not follow public health measures and that the virus mutates. This scenario suggests that there could be an increase in cases in the fall.
It is a strategy of gradually increasing restrictions and public health measures to prevent the spread of the virus, while allowing people to go about their daily lives as much as possible. This includes things like social distancing, wearing masks in public, frequent handwashing, and avoiding large gatherings. The goal is to keep case numbers low enough that the healthcare system can manage them without becoming overwhelmed.
This scenario would involve a much longer period of disruption, with the potential for multiple waves of infection and a prolonged economic downturn.
In this case, governments and businesses would need to be prepared for a long-term disruption, with measures such as social distancing, travel restrictions, and other public health measures in place for an extended period of time. Businesses would need to adjust their operations to accommodate these changes and plan for the possibility of further disruptions in the future. Governments would need to provide additional support to businesses and individuals affected by the crisis, as well as develop strategies to mitigate the economic impacts.
Dr. Njoo expressed concern over the recent jump in cases of COVID-19 across Canada, noting that it is a reminder that the virus is still circulating and people must remain vigilant in following public health measures. He urged Canadians to continue to practice physical distancing, wear masks when out in public, and wash their hands frequently. He also reminded Canadians to get tested if they have any symptoms of COVID-19 or if they have been exposed to someone who has tested positive for the virus.
- “Everyone’s concerned about the ongoing increase, the trend is going the wrong way,â€Â he said.
Projections for Ontario also “concerning†says study
This is a stark reminder of the need for continued vigilance and adherence to public health measures in order to prevent further spread of the virus. It is also a call to action for governments and healthcare providers to ensure that they are prepared for the potential surge in cases and fatalities over the coming months.
- “These numbers are shocking, but the key issue here is we can change them by our behaviour,â€Â says Mokdad.
The new restrictions come as the province reported a record-breaking 1,859 new cases of COVID-19 on Sunday.
Ontario Premier Doug Ford said the province is in a “dangerous situation” and that the government had to take action.
“We have to act now,” he said. “We can’t wait any longer.”
Mokdad said these new measures are “very important.â€
- “Our models take into account such mandates. So one of the mandates is gathering restrictions, the fact that Canada is doing that at this time is very good and encouraging because you want to be at the lower number when you start this peak going up into fall and winter,â€Â he said.
“And doing this at this time is very smart and a sound decision,†he said.
